Australians will head to the polls for the next federal election sometime in the next three months – although when exactly it will be held isn’t set in stone.
While a mid-April election has seemed the most likely outcome for months, the onset of Cyclone Alfred has complicated matters for the government.
This is what we know about when the election can and will be called by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
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How does Cyclone Alfred impact the election date?
April 12 has long been mooted as the most likely date for the federal election – more on that later – but Tropical Cyclone Alfred has put Albanese in a difficult position if he does want to call a vote for then.
Elections are traditionally announced on Sundays in Australia, and the last Sunday an April 12 election can be called is this one – March 9 – as law requires at least 33 days between the election being called and held.
But with Alfred due to hit south-east Queensland and northern NSW on Thursday night or early Friday morning, that would require the prime minister to leave Brisbane only a few days after the storm, as he has to be in Canberra to call the vote.
He could still go to the capital and then return to Brisbane on the same day, or break with tradition and call the election on Monday, which is the latest day possible to call an April 12 election.
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But Albanese may want to avoid the public perception of leaving the recovery zone for Canberra, particularly given Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will likely be on the ground in his outer-Brisbane electorate of Dickson.
What complicates things is the two weekends after April 12 are poor election options.
April 19 falls in the middle of Easter, while April 26 is the day after Anzac Day.
Calling an election for a long weekend would hardly be a popular move, and means that, if it’s not called for April 12, we’re set for a vote in May.
For his part, Albanese hasn’t been drawn on speculation about the election date in relation to the cyclone.
“With due respect to the importance of the next federal election, I don’t think (people’s) focus this morning is on election dates,” he told ABC radio.
EXPLAINED: Where and when Cyclone Alfred will make landfall
When is the latest the federal election can be held?
There are a series of requirements in the Constitution that set out when an election has to be held.
Terms in the House of Representatives run for three years, and an election for that house must be held no later than 68 days after they expire.
This time around, those terms expire on July 25, 2025, and the last Saturday in the following 68-day period is September 27.
We’ll definitely head to the ballot box before then, though, thanks to the Senate.
Half of all senators’ terms will expire on June 30, 2025, and an election has to be held for those seats in the preceding year.
Once you factor in various technicalities and practicalities around swearing in, as well as the fact House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are almost always held simultaneously, the latest date the next federal election can be held is May 17, 2025.
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So when will it actually be? What is the government saying?
Putting aside the impact of Cyclone Alfred, one election date that keeps getting thrown around is April 12.
Part of the reason for that is, if Albanese wants to wait until after the Western Australian state election on March 8 to call the federal vote, but still wants to avoid his campaign clashing with the Easter and Anzac Day public holidays, April 12 is the only day available to him.
This is because there can be no fewer than 33 days between an election being called and it being held.
In late January, Albanese was asked about the prospect of an April 12 election, but played a very straight bat.
“Well, May 17 is when the election will be, or before… good try there, I’ll give you points for effort,” he said.
Another factor to consider is the federal budget, which is due to be handed down on March 25.
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After two straight surpluses, the national accounts appear set to be in the red, raising speculation the government will announce the election before March 25, and avoid the need to deliver a first deficit since 2022.
Again, an April 12 election would fit into this approach.
Alternatively, if the government wants to hold the budget, potentially to hand out some more cost-of-living relief before voters head to the polls, this would push the election date back to early- to mid-May.
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has given no clues about whether the budget will or won’t go ahead.
“The timing of the election is a matter for the prime minister, in consultation with his senior colleagues,” he said on February 18.
“But we’re working towards that budget.”
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For the most part, Albanese has spoken more about his support for longer parliamentary terms than the chance of calling an early election.
“It’s the media that seem to be obsessed by the date of elections. I have read the election would be in August, September, November, December 7, probably passed now,” Albanese said in November.
“I support four-year terms, and I wish it was four-year fixed terms so this obsession with dates that begins halfway through a term didn’t continue.”
Now, though, we’re essentially at a full term, as Chalmers has noted.
“Regardless of the decision the prime minister takes, an election is more or less imminent,” he said.
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What does interest rates have to do with it all?
Before the RBA moved to cut interest rates on February 18, the consensus view among political observers was that the government would wait for a cut before sending Australians to the polls.
Now the central bank has pulled the trigger on its first cut since 2020, Albanese has some good economic news in his back pocket after three years of rising prices and interest rates, and it’s increased the chances of the election happening earlier than May 17.
”Validation… that’s what the government will be saying today, that all the pain that Australians have suffered and all the pain the government has suffered trying to tighten the belt will be now worth something,” Nine political editor Charles Croucher said after the RBA’s decision.
“They have something to show and that is a rate cut now. Did it come fast enough? Is it going to be large enough? Who knows.
“What this does give them though, is a springboard moving forward to an election.”
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It’s also worth considering that RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated a second cut is very unlikely anytime soon.
Had she signalled more relief could be imminent, that may have encouraged the government to push towards a later election, in the hope another cut could fall before polling day.
But with the RBA’s next two decisions – on April 1 and May 20 – likely to end in rate holds, that could once again encourage an election around early- to mid-April.
What about a double dissolution election?
Albanese helped ignite speculation about a double dissolution in September but there’s now no chance of that happening.
A double dissolution election occurs when both houses of parliament are dissolved and every seat is contested (as opposed to regular elections, when only half the Senate goes to the polls) after a piece of legislation has been repeatedly rejected.
The latest both houses could have been dissolved this term was January 24.
However, the government was able to get a huge raft of legislation through the Senate on the last sitting day of 2024, ending any chance of using any of those bills as a trigger for a double dissolution.
It’s also worth noting that double dissolution elections are quite rare.
While one was held as recently as 2016, only six others have been called in Australian history.
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