The Bank holiday weekend might have been a mixed bag of weather, this spring was officially the sunniest on record.
With four days still to go, the previous record was in 2020 and that has already been smashed by four hours.
So, with one forecaster predicting highs of perhaps 31°C in early June, it’s no surprise then that people are wondering whether a heatwave might be on the horizon.
Metro spoke to the Met Office to get their verdict, and they aren’t quite so certain.
Forecaster Andrea Bishop said that we may see high pressure moving in, bringing warmer temperatures for southern England, typical for May when temperatures often reach the high 20s.
However, whether the mercury is going to rise above 30°C from next week, she said: ‘At this stage it is too far into the future to say with any confidence.
‘When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play.
‘Small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time.’
The Met Office’s long range forecast suggests there’s a possibility of very warm weather in the early parts of June, potentially bringing with it thunderstorms and strong winds.
Beyond that, when predictions become even more difficult, into mid-June is likely to be changeable.
What is the threshold for a UK heatwave?
What constitutes a heatwave in the UK varies depending on where you are.
Basically, you need at least three consecutive days where the daily maximum temperature reaches a specific threshold.
In London and most of the Home Counties, the threshold is 28°C, while in Scotland, most of Wales, Northern Ireland, northern England, Devon, and Cornwall, it’s 25°C. The other regions fit somewhere in the middle.
Heatwaves usually occur in the summer when a slow-moving high-pressure system develops.
High pressure in the UK is caused when the jet stream moves to the north of the country.
Research shows that climate change is driving more extreme weather events.
A study by the Met Office into the Summer 2018 heatwave showed that the likelihood of the UK experiencing a summer as hot or hotter than 2018 is over 1 in 10.
A peak temperature of 35.3°C was recorded in Faversham, Kent, on July 26, 2018.
The highest temperature ever recorded in England was 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, on July 19, 2022.
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