US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warning that China poses an “imminent” threat to Taiwan should be taken seriously by the Australian government, a security expert is warning today.
The Pentagon chief provoked a diplomatic storm in a speech to a regional security forum in Singapore on the weekend when he said China was seeking dominance over the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing responded by describing the US of being the “biggest troublemaker” for regional peace.
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Malcolm Davis says Hegseth’s remarks were a timely reminder for Australia of the threat from China “here and now”.
“Hegseth is basically telling it as it is. China, I think, has every intention of moving against Taiwan in this decade.
“If you look at what they’re doing, they are actively preparing for war, practising operations to impose a blockade on Taiwan, they’re building up their military capabilities to do a cross-straits invasion.”
The self-ruled island of Taiwan has been the subject of a geopolitical tug of war between the US and China for decades. China claims it is a breakaway territory and has not ruled out force to retake it.
Washington’s longstanding policy has been to provide political and military support for Taiwan, while not explicitly promising to defend it from a Chinese attack.
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Countries across the Indo Pacific fear any Chinese military operation against Taiwan would destabilise the region.
The economic fallout would also be felt across the world, given Taiwan’s position as a leading producer of advanced microchips. Any invasion would hand control of the prized industry to the Chinese government and potentially cripple western tech industries.
What could a Chinese invasion of Taiwan mean for Australia
There would be pressure on Australia to join the US and other allies in standing up to any military takeover by China.
American military assets currently rotate through Australia, such as US marines in Darwin and US Air Force bombers in Queensland. During any potential conflict with China, these forces would probably be expanded to allow them to operate from Australia.
The Trump administration also wants its allies in the region to step up defence spending to meet growing Chinese assertiveness.
Hegseth has urged Australia to lift its military budget to 3.5 per cent.
The federal government has pledged to spend $10 billion extra on defence by 2033, but some experts say the threat from China is in the shorter term.
“Hegseth is saying if China makes a move against Taiwan, we would expect Australia to lift its game on defence spending to be able to support the US if it goes in to defend Taiwan.”
What would China gain by invading Taiwan?
A successful takeover of the island would enable China to influence the Indo-Pacific through force, says Davis.
“There is a geo-strategic aspect to this … if China is allowed to take Taiwan, it is then much better positioned to project its power across the Indo-Pacific region, deep into south-east Asia, including against Australia.”
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