Millions of people in eastern Australia hoping the recent downpour is behind them are set to be disappointed, with weather forecasters predicting an unusually wet spring.
Abnormally warm sea temperatures around the country will raise the chance of further downpours, thunderstorms and possibly flooding when the new season begins next month, Weatherzone reports.
Soaring temperatures and increased storm activity are regular features of spring ahead of the northern wet season, but other factors are at play this year.
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They include a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to emerge to the north-west of Australia over coming weeks.
A negative IOD would see ocean surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean drive moisture-heavy air towards mainland Australia.
They typically cause above-average rain over the nation’s south and south-east.
Ocean temperatures around Australia are also expected to be warmer than average during spring.
“These relatively warm waters will help supply additional atmospheric moisture for rain and clouds over the Australian continent this spring,” Weatherzone said.
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Forecasters are hedging their bets on whether a La Nina or El Nina weather pattern will develop, instead predicting a “neutral phase” in coming months.
While eastern parts of Australia are set for damp conditions, an abnormally dry spring is expected for some northern and western parts.
The lack of rain could be accompanied by warmer-than-average daytime temperatures.
“Some forecast models even suggest that mean maximum temperatures will be in the top 20 per cent of historical records this spring across parts of northern Australia,” Weatherzone said.
“These abnormally warm temperatures may help enhance bushfire activity in the final months of the dry season.”
But for much of southern and eastern Australia, the mercury during the day will be driven down by increased cloud cover.
Temperatures are still expected to rise during spring in the build-up to summer, but the daytime will feel unseasonally cooler in many regions.
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